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Thursday, 19 January 2017
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Mahendra Sharma | Kitco News OUTLOOK 2017
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Predictions that Came True from the Books
Scorecard of 2016 Predictions book:
· USA market achieved an all-time high; every correction remained for a short period. S&P held our lower side level of 1812 and bounced to 2278 level.
· Gold and silver gained value in the first half but gave away gains in the second half as predicted
· Coffee and cotton moved higher, and both achieved the higher side predicted target of $178 and $78.00
· Cocoa prices crash from $3300 to 2200 as predicted.
· Dollar achieved 103.78 level, our view on USD was bullish
· Oil prices traded in the range of $27.71 to $54.78, which were the predicted ranges for 2016
· Thirty Year bond prices crashed from 172 to 148 level as predicted
· We were able to predict the bottom for S&P and oil on 12 February 2016
· Our date of 22nd August gold top out also came out very accurate
· Brazilian Real, Brazilian market buying recommendations did very well for investors
· Our view was very bullish for Russian Rubble in 2016
· Grains traded as predicted
· I failed to predicted the outcome of Brexit and the USA election
· I expected gold to move up to $1250 but it went up to $1378 level
Predictions which came true and not in 2015
It always people talk about how much money they made, hardly anyone talks about how much you saved by not taking wrong trade or investment decisions. In 2015 those so stayed away from mining and energy stocks and commodities have been saved by losing fortune. In 2015 our main advice was not to invest in metal and energy sector and other hand our view was very bullish on USD.
- USA equity market did not touch our higher side ranges but held value of lower side target mentioned in book (1827, and 3880, Dow 16590 and Russell 1091). From Oct 2015 our view on market was very bullish but market only recovered loses from August/Sep Fall.
- Corn, wheat and Soy bean achieved our predicted lower side target and then started to bottom out around predicted lower side targets of Corn held $354, wheat $455 and Soy $845.
- Dollar index not only achieved our target of 95.75 but also it fulfilled our first long term target of three digits 100. Selling recommendations in most of currencies prediction done very well for currency traders.
- In 2014 We recommended selling oil at $98.50 with target of $44.25. Oil prices achieved our target of $44.25, in fact it went towards 35.55 which was mentioned in weekly newsletter. We predicted that in the worst case scenario it may test $29.68. Energy stocks traded horribly as predicted. In our 2015 book we recommend investors not to put even single penny in energy stocks.
- Platinum, Palladium, copper, and other base metals went sharply lower as predicted. Our prediction was very negative on base metals and mining stocks which saved lot of money for our members. Silver’s lower side target was $13.55 which was achieved, but we expected gold to move towards $963 and so far our lower side target has not been achieved but shall achieve in early 2016.
- Many Asian, South American and European Indexes ranges got fulfilled but S&P, NASDAQ, DOW and Russell haven’t fulfilled our higher side predicted target.
- Softs traded in the ranges as predicted in 2015 except we predicted coffee to hold the lower side range of $155 which came wrong as coffee prices fell far below that level.
- Thirty-year bond prices achieved our higher side target but our lower side target was never fulfilled.
- We predicted a big rally in tech and housing related stocks in 2015. Tech stocks performed extremely well but financial and housing related stocks traded mixed.
- In the First half 2015 the market performed as predicted but during the second half of the year the market never moved higher as predicted.
- We predicted the rates to rise any time around August 2015 which never happened.
- Our prediction of the unemployment rate dropping below 5% came true.
- Stocks like AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, BIDU, EMC, TXN, INCY, GS, JPM, V, MA, and HZNP performed well. WMT, GMCR, GLW, ORCL, CSCO, IBM, FCEL, BLDP and Uranium stocks performed very negatively.
And more…read previous articles on our home page
Predictions which came true in 2014
- The USA stock markets and most other global equity markets hitting an all-time high
- Predicted Commodities and commodity stocks to trade lower
- Dollar Index moving towards 90.00 from 80.00 level
- Major fall in Euro from 1.3880, Swiss Franc 1.1460 and Australian dollar 0.9290
- Fall in Soy from $1570 to $930, Wheat from $750 to $500 and Corn from $500 to $350
- Gold achieved our lower side predicted target of $1142 and $14.72 and oil $57.80
- S&P achieved our predicted higher side target of 2080, Nifty 8178 and DAX 10000
- Predicted sharp recovery in the Shanghai market in the last quarter of 2014
- Unemployment rates dropping below 6%
- USA outperforming the rest of the world in terms of economic activity as well as stock market trend
- Emerging markets would underperform
- Biotech and tech stocks performed as well as predicted in 2014
- Apple, Microsoft, Yahoo, REGN, INCY, CELG, GOLDMAN, C, GLW, EMC, CSCO, TXN done well
- Indian Pharma sector buying recommendations remained best call, many other recommended stocks also provided more than 100% returns except TATA Sponge, Panacea biotech and Reliance
Wrong Predictions of 2014
- We predicted expecting gold to move toward $1000 but never happened
- Thirty Bond went higher in second half of 2014
- We recommended buying in IBM, FCEL, FNMA, FMCC, AEGR but they performed negative
- Palladium fail to reach $1000
Predictions which came true in the 2013
- S&P predictions: Our target was 1750 by Dec 2013 got achieved, we predicted when it was 1405
- JP Yen: Our target 0.9700 got achieved, we predicted when Yen was 132.00
- 30 Year Bonds: Our target on downside was 130, we predicted when it was 150.00
- Our view on gold and silver was very negative for 2013, Gold achieved $1150 and silver 18.50 target
- Precious metals stocks and HUI kept moving lower in 2013 as predicted
- Sharp fall of emerging market currencies (Rupee, Rubble, Real, Rand) in 2013
- Rupee target of 70.00 against USD got achieved
- Weakness in Australian dollar in 2013, our target of 0.9000 got achieved
- Japanese stock market upward trend in 2013
- Technology, Food and Biotech stocks rise
- Grains and oil predicted ranges got fulfill in 2013
- Master, Apple, Visa, TSLA, HZNP, FMCC, FMNA, Starbucks, Google, Goldman, PLUG provided more than 100% returns
- Positive trend in Real-Estate in 2013
- Our view was very bullish for USA and rest of world equity stock market for 2013
- Our view was very negative for commodity and commodity stocks for 2013
Wrong Predictions of 2013
- Softs rising predictions came wrong as coffee, cotton and sugar kept falling
- We predicted dollar Index but still trading around 80.00 level
- Uranium stocks underperformed
- Rise of USD dollar against commodities and all major currencies
- Rise of S&P from 1090 and targeted to reach 1407 by April 2012
- USA equity to outperform all other markets
- Negative trend or fall in Emerging market in the first half of 2012
- Rupee to hit 56.50 against USD and it did in May 2012
- Fall in emerging market currencies in first half of 2012
- Fall in oil from $105 to $78.80
- Recommended avoiding commodities
- Recommended not to buy commodity stocks
- Treasury bond toward 152, this should be high of 2012
- Invest in Technology stocks, like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft
- 10 May Negative cycle of Mark Zuckerberg started
- Avoid buying Facebook, may fall 50% after listing (7 day before IPO we released news)
- Sell SOY around $1510 and meal $435
- Fall of EURO from $1.35, first target $1.23 and next 1.1880
Wrong predictions in 2012:
- Rise of gold & Silver in March to May (Never happened)
- We were too early in recommendation of buying Natural gas
- Fall of Euro from 146 to 1.25
- Worst EU debt crises and meltdown
- Negative trend in equity market until Sep 2011
- Bottom out of S&P around 1090, recommended buying in Sep 2011
- Historic high in Thirty year Treasury bond with target of 146
- Fall in emerging market currencies
- Fall of Swiss Franc from 1.39, gave target of 1.05
- Rise of US dollar in 2011 against currencies except (Yen)
- Fall of silver from $48.00 to $32.00 target
- Fall of gold in the second half of 2011
- Indian Rupee to reach 54 against USD
- Weak trend of metals stocks in 2011
- Buy USA stocks and keep money in USD
- Stock market up trend, S&P touching 1250
- Uranium and Uranium stocks rise
- Corn to rise up to $600 and coffee$230
- Weather related problem in Australia and South America would support grains
- Sugar fall from $30 to $14 and rise from $14 back again
- Fall of Treasury bond from 134 to 120
- European debt crises, Euro weakness in 2010
- Pound to rise back from 1.38
- Swiss Franc and Yen to gain against all currencies in 2010
- Dollar bottoming out around 76.00
- Housing and banking problems till Middle of 2009
- Fall in Asian stocks and European and USA stocks until 7 March 2009
- Market to bottom out by mid March 2009
- Fall of Euro, Pound, Swiss Franc, Australian/Canadian dollar
- US Dollar Index went up in first quarter 09, Pound hit 1.38 and Euro 1.17
- Prices of bond to remained strong
- Euro zone uncertainty and debt problem
- Rise of Yen and Swiss Franc against major currencies
- Grain prices to remain weak with soft commodities
- Domination of housing and banking problems. Declines in 2008
- Fall in Asian stocks and European stocks
- Decline of oil from $145 to $50
- Fall of Euro, Pound, Swiss Franc, Australian/Canadian dollar
- US Dollar Index went up from 72 to 89 as predicted
- Fall of Grains, Coffee and Cotton
- Rise in Treasury bond up 140
- Fall in Platinum from $2410 to $900 and copper from $400 to $150
- Fall in gold and silver from $1000 to $750 and silver $21 to $9.80
- Fire in California (Month of Oct 2008) and Australia
- Pakistan election problem and Musaraff losing power
- Problem in Kenya’s general election
- Castro losing power in Cuba
- Democrat winning election in USA
- Obama winning election in tough race with Mrs. Clinton
- Drastic fall in USA and UAE real estate market
- Fall in Indian Rupee and Korean Won to historic low, rise and fall of Yen
- Domination of housing and banking problems. Declines in 2007.
- Domination of discussions on solar and alternative energy resources. Prediction of phenomenal rise of solar stocks.
- Decline of oil from $98.80.
- Decline of European economies.
- Weak trends in Orange juice, Lumber and Sugar.
- High performance of Coffee and Cotton.
- Prediction of less natural disasters and terrorist activities in western countries.
- 30% fall of metals and oil. Gold came down from $732 to $545 in two weeks. Same thing happened with silver and copper.
- Decline of oil from $80 to $50. In December 2006 oil dropped to almost $50.
- The rise of Corn, Wheat and Soy Bean. This surprised everyone as grains prices started moving up from August.
- Interest rates remained high as predicted
- One of the most important predictions was about the fall of the housing market. Also warned of the related crisis in the banking industry.
- High tensions in Iran and Iraq but also predicted absence of terrorist attacks in the USA.
- Great boom era for alternative energy stocks.
- Good performance of technology stocks.
- Flood problems in China and Bangladesh.
- Gold and silver prices hitting new highs and short term correction in mid 2005.
- Oil prices hitting $80 a barrel – on September 2nd oil hit a new high of $80.
- Economic boom in Asian countries and Middle East (the best examples are India,China and the UAE).
- Early 2005 prediction - Increase in interest rate in USA and Dollar weakness.
- Continuous rally of commodity stocks.
- Prominence of Iran and N. Korea issues.
- Crash of Middle East stock markets (stocks lost more than 50% value)
- Heat wave in Europe and India
Since the launch of the 2004 World & Financial Prophecies in November 2003, many predictions have been fulfilled, while many are still poised to come to pass within the few months. Here are a few important ones that have elicited widespread attention from all corners of the world:
- As predicted, metals attained a new high on 2 April 2004
- The Dollar reached a new low against all major currencies in the first quarter of 2004
- Collapse of Grain prices after May 2004
- End of the USA-IRAQ war and the subsequent chaos
- Oil prices crossing the $50 mark after the middle of 2004
- The rise of Russia
- Skyrocketing of the USA deficit in 2004
- Rise of interest rates after May 2004
- Occurrence of floods in Bangladesh
- Also the predicted stunning victory of Congress party in India. Indeed, BJP is still in shock following the defeat
- Devastating hurricanes hitting the East coast ofUSA in August and September
- ANC victory in South Africa
- Rise of Coffee prices after mid 2004
- Platinum crossing the $900 mark in the first quarter of 2004
- The rise of Palladium by more than 50% by March 2004
- The amazing rise of copper prices in 2004
- The beginning of a decline of the USA Stock market after June 2004
- The emergence of surprising Libya-USA friendship ties
- The drawing closer of India and Pakistan in 2004. However, I have a different prediction for 2005 concerning this
- The heat wave in India
- Rise of unemployment in the USA
- Silver prices touching $7.95 early in the year
By the end of 2004, the list shall be updated to include the latest predictions.
The predictions that have come true since the December 2002 launch of my book “2003 World Prophesies”
- Gold, silver and Platinum rise.
- Cotton Price rise.
- Fire in Oil storage (occurred in New York Friday, 21 Feb 2003).
- Accident in gathering place(Happened in the night clubs).
- Opposition victory in Kenyan elections.
- Plane crash and accidents.
- New policy on gold mine in South Africa.
- Crash of Oil Prices in March.
- USA and Iraq war.
- 20th March attack on Saddam.
- France and China won't support USA for war.
- UK will support USA for war.
- Russia won't support the Iraq war.
- Turkey's problem with neighbouring country.
- Syria will have Stressful relations with western world and Europe.
- Tensions between North Korea and USA.
- Saddam bad time and Bush good time in March.
- Weather would create havoc around the world.
- Copper prices rise.
- Euro, Pound, Ausi Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Franc Rand and Brazil currencies rise against US$.
- Japanese Yen Rise against US$.
- South Korea natural disaster.
- Technology stocks would rise after March 2003 in USA.
- Death of key personality in Kenya.
- Israel-Palestine peace agreement in early 2003 and after August 2003 major conflict.
- India-Pakistan friendship.
- China flood and heat wave in Europe and India.
- Asian stock market rise.
- Rise in Indian, Brazil stock and s. Korea market.
- Food and oil prices rise in RSA in-spite of strong Rand.
- Sri Lanka peace sign in-between LLTE and Government.
- Libya's Gaddafi and positive policy.
- Good monsoon in Kenya and India.
- Great rise in metal stocks.
- UN will fail to play fair role in world because of USA and UK.
The predictions that have come true since the September 2001 launch of my book“2002 World Prophesies (First Edition)” and second updated edition published in mid 2002.
- Terrorist attack on USA (September 11th attack on different places in the USA).
- Terrorist attack on India (Parliament attack)
- Big buildings will collapse (Twin Towers)
- Many deaths will occur in gathering places (Stadium tragedy in SA and West Africa)
- India – Pakistan tension
- Attack on Yasser Arafat and Palestine
- Argentina economy collapse, peso will devalue and key politicians will resign.
- War in Afghanistan and terrorist activities in Afghanistan
- US Dollar will go down and US economy will come under recession
- Euro and British Pound rise
- Oil prices will touch $30 US
- Flooding in Algeria and Mexico
- Gold prices will rise (currently prices are rising)
- BJP will lose in coming elections (ruling party BJP lost elections in India)
- Health problems in Royal family (death of Princess Margaret and Queen Mother)
- USA-IRAQ tension and Saddam will be in headline
- World key stock market will collapse in 2002 and stablise in October 2002
- Technology and telecommunications stocks rise from October 2002
- Big business house will collapse (ENRON, WORLD COM)
- IMF and donors will support Brazil
- Heavy floods and damage in Europe and Asia.
- Huge weather disturbances (heavy rains, cold, storms, typhoons and tornados)
- Food grain shortages in Africa (Malawi)
- Benazir Bhutto’s will become strong.
- Pervez Musharraf's popularity will go down. (His support dwindles)
- BJP will lose and Congress party will win. (Jammu & Kashmir election proved)
- Coffee will rise from September 2002 (rise by 40%)
- Train and aircraft accident in India and Europe
- SA Rand would gain against US$ when it was 14
- Buy gold at $273, during launching first book
- Buy silver $4.32
- Buy oil $21
- Buy mining natural resources stocks
- Buy Euro 0.83 against USD
- Sell USD dollar against all currencies
Testimonials from Members [View All]
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