Today's Trade & News

Here is this week newsletter:  

Dear Members,

The year 2008 was a rollercoaster period because it was year of Saturn, causing severe economic damage to many countries and seriously afflicting the financial health of many individuals. There were however many survivors, most of who survived by keeping a close watch on the financial trends. It has been a trying period for the world economy, and we have hopefully gone past the worst challenges of that rough year. It was during this period that oil killed its own destiny, while major stock markets suffered a severe thrashing. Stock prices tumbled in unprecedented fashion while commodities fell into disarray in the face of plummeting world demand. The Dollar made a “U-turn” from the middle of the year, a fact that surprised many economists after their lengthy spell of gloom and dire pronouncements. The same experts eagerly changed tune following the Dollar’s emphatic rise and declared it a ‘safe haven’ in the midst of the uncertainty.

Economists and analysts will always give reasons to show that they are right. These explanations usually seem to make sense and only few perceptive people will normally discern that these answers are always given with the benefit of hindsight and in light of current conditions. In contrast, our newsletters present future trends that are never based on current scenarios. This is why many billionaires and intellectuals find our services interesting and closely follow our predictions. Our job is to predict the future; and we shall keep doing it without fear even though this may often not win us support. As we have said many times, experts may not agree with our predictions about new trends because they are not based on current fundamental & trends. This is a fact we fully understand, but one must remember that our work is about what is yet to be born, not what already is. Thankfully, time vindicates our predictions.

2009 looks very interesting because many new things are set to take place. The first one will be the Obama inauguration and he will begin making decisions in the White House. In many ways, his journey has been an epic whose phenomenal success is to a large extent due to the change that he embodies. Fascination with a new beginning has made people give Obama the opportunity to lead them, but seasoned politicians and intellectuals will be watching him very closely. There are a lot of expectations about the Obama Presidency, and many countries will push him for answers and his plan for the Middle East. Africa will be waiting anxiously to see what change he brings to transform their lives. The leader of the USA plays a critical role in world peace, health and economy: the world will therefore watch his every move. The world will watch him not because of the great hope we have in him, but because of the damage caused by Bush in the world environment and how Obama intends to fix it.

Though President Bush was right to be tough in the war against terror, he also made mistakes, some of which will not be easily forgotten. Unfortunately, many of his mistakes were allowed to stand because his ignorance toward financial & war on Iraq were not questioned as they should have been. As a result, people lost homes, stock markets crashed and he allowed oil prices to soar to unsustainable levels. I still believe that there was a conspiracy behind the oil bubble, and that it involved powerful people and oil cartels. Anyhow, we hope to forget the past and look forward to a better future in the newly born year 2009.

I recommend that we closely watch the Dollar’s trend in 2009, because it will perform much better than gold if the situation fails to work out in the world’s financial market. Previously, gold was known as the safe haven of finances, but we have now added the Dollar to this list. It should be noted that while we predict the rise of the Dollar, it does not mean that it will move up each and everyday. It is however certain that its medium and longer term trend will be up. We are 90% positive about the US Dollar trend, and among all financial instruments, it will be the only one able to provide stable returns in 2009. I am sure that we all want to forget what happened to stock markets in 2008, but if 2009 turns negative {which I don’t foresee}, then the USD could rise more than 50% in 2009. I am however convinced that stock markets will perform positively and I therefore expect a 30% rise of the US Dollar in 2009.

All major commodities will trade in a mixed trend: metals will fight their own destiny from February 2009, and there will be many ups and downs. Indeed, I don’t see metals crossing the 2008 highs in 2009. Metals are set to trade around the previous week’s high on the higher side of 2008, while gold could fall up to $650 on the lower side in 2009; and silver to $7.88. Meanwhile, platinum and copper will keep moving down: copper may decline to $80 and platinum to $720.

Oil will move sideways and the trading range will be $32.80 to $78.80 in 2009; our weekly newsletter will guide members regarding medium and short term trends.

Grains will remain positive in 2009 but unable to break highs of the previous year. They will be a little mix early this year, and decline sharply from February. They will however rise again from the bottom, and I expect this to happen around August 2009.

Soft commodities are set to be weak in 2009. We of course know that prices don’t move in only one direction, and we shall therefore guide you appropriately through our weekly newsletter.

The Treasury bond will remain sideways though we expect a sharp rise from February. This rising trend could persist till April 2009.

Politically, the year 2009 will be stable. There will however be more instability in Africa and Asia compared to the USA. Europe is also set to have an unstable year. Middle East uncertainty will get over by 16 January, but till 15 March problem will keep making headline. I am just worried till 15 January and Sun can take many people’s life in the house of Jupiter.

India and Pakistan will some tension time but major problem will come from boarder of Afghanistan and this will break-up Pakistan into little different small part. Pakistan authority and world international community should remain alert about up coming this disaster for Pakistan.

Let me once again wish you good luck in 2009. I hope that we shall all be in a progressive path and avoid past mistakes.

Here is the first Weekly Financial Newsletter this year.

Financial weekly Newsletter for 5th to 9th January 2009.

GOLD/SILVER
The current trend could remain positive before a sharp decline occurs as planetary movements support metals at this stage. I must however say that the future is worrisome. We therefore don’t recommend members to buy at this stage. Last week Gold prices closed around $875 and silver $11.50 and I don’t see much higher from Fridays close so take a opportunity of selling on higher side.  

This week Tuesday gold/silver should remain positive, so take a opportunity of buying on sharp fall but if gold and silver move down on Tuesday, this will be confirmation of a decline in metals from middle of this week. Those who want to remain invested in metals can however buy a small position in metal stocks.

On higher side gold can reach $881.80 and silver $11.81 and down side $835 and $10.80. This week silver will remain positive then gold BUT trend of metals doesn’t seems that positive from Wednesday so get out from buying position.

ZINC/COPPER/PLATINUM/PALLADIUM
These side metals will move down sharply this week from Wednesday; therefore sell copper and buy palladium/zinc. Meanwhile, copper should come down to $72.80 in the next three months.

COFFEE/COTTON
Both soft commodities will remain weakly and your money should not be stuck here till they strongly bounce back. Coffee will turn around in the first week of February and any sharp fall in should thus be taken as a buying opportunity. I don’t see cotton moving up in coming months and we should hence keep a close eye on coffee. In the worst case scenario, coffee could go towards $88.80 on the lower side but I shall surely start buying around $96 and keep buying one contract on each one dollar fall. Monday and Tuesday coffee/cotton can move up but take a opportunity of selling.

COCOA/ORANGE JUICE/LUMBER/SUGAR

Among these soft commodities, only lumber looks interesting. One should not buy cocoa and sugar as they will fall more than nine percent in coming days. Orange juice however looks stable from current levels; while I see cocoa dropping to $1890 and sugar to $8.80. Lumber could however sharply move up from current levels, but for a short period.

STOCK MARKET

Last week was positive for all major stock markets, which is what we expected. I still see a positive trend on Monday, but those buying in international markets should get out from buying position on Monday and Tuesday. This is because I see a sharp correction in major markets from any time this week and this correction will continue into next week. However, one should begin to buy our favorite investment areas by 21 January.

One can hedge position by holding alternative energy and selling indexes, and this could provide safe returns in the next two weeks. Don’t sell power related stocks, nuclear, uranium, solar, fuel cell and hybrid stocks. Those interested in mining should opt for uranium stocks.

The upwards trend could persist through Monday but I am expecting big correction so sell indexes on any rise. Sell in Asia, Europe and buy in the USA to hedge your position.

TREASURY BOND

Predictions about the Treasury bond in the last six months have proved very accurate. We called the 142 topside for the thirty years bond and last week we recommended selling around 142 and they declined sharply to 135. We expect this week to move up a little but prices will come down once again. The trading range will be $133.20 to $136.80. Thirty bonds never looked back after touching 47.10 low in 1981. 

GRAINS

Grain prices were very stable last week. Grains will trade sideways for a few weeks so no need to invest in grains and sharp rise or fall be taken as a buying opportunity. There will however be a sharp decline from Mid-February, therefore beware. This week grain prices will move down.