Friday Flash News (unedited copy)
Weakness in metals to watch carefully
Dear Members,
My theory is based on wave of nature and human behavior pattern, and these behavior pattern can study through astro cycle well in advance, and no other study is available which can guide us in advance. Most of market moves can be predicted the way currently they behave but it is very difficult to identify what is coming ahead. Take an example of 2014, we predicted dollar Index to move sharply higher from 79.50, targeted 100.00 and 118.00, and for oil we predicted it could test $30.00 in few years when it was trading around $100 level.
Now nature decided to choose Mr. Trump as 45 President of USA so this factor was not in my study, also in 2011 we predicted that bull market of equity to end around mid-2015 or 2016, but in 2015 we changed timing and we stated that S&P should test our original predicted level of 3200. Currently I am doing my study on that and I will write in next week newsletter.
On Thursday gold and silver prices traded negative, and metal stocks also lost value. DUST moved 11% higher. Energy prices remain mix as predicted. Grains gained value and cotton moved sharply higher as predicted.
Stocks held gain and we recommended to sell around higher side of 2188 level, S&P tested 2185.75 level, we also expected some profit booking coming from higher levels but nothing major witnessed.
US Dollar Index gained more value, many of currencies traded toward lower. Emerging market currencies acted well but still traded negative. Thirty Year bond prices moved lowers as predicted and more weakness is on the way.
Next week grains, and metals options will expire so volatility will be witnessed.
So, far FMCC, FNMA, DUST, LABU, TMV and GLD performing VERY WELL. On Friday weakness in gold, silver and other metals will continue, gold tested our second target of selling recommended at $1348. First lower side target was predicted $90 lower from $1348 which $1256 and second target was $1211, so two lower side target got achieve in the two weeks’ time. Energy will trade mix with rest of other commodities. Dollar may move further higher around more two points. S&P in mood of breaking 2188 but still trading below this level so watch and read our next week newsletter carefully.
Yesterday we stated to sell all these shipping stocks, today they lost big value, DRYS came down to $11.00 from $78.00 level, many of other also lost around 50% value in just six hours of trading. This is what we mentioned yesterday so sell or short these shipping stocks and they lost today big vale: Once again shipping stocks gone nuts, stay away from these stocks (DRYS, SHIP, FRO, GSL, GNK, SBLK, EGLE, GLNG and NAT, many of these stocks went from 100% to 100% in the last one week), watch Baltic Dry Index.
Here is what we mentioned in “2016 Financial Predictions” book on page 59.
Tenth Cycle for metal market:, from page 59, “2016 Financial Predictions”
From the 7th of October to 17th of November 2016 - Once again precious metals prices will fall sharply lower during this cycle so one should book profit before this cycle starts, or close your positions if you are holding any in metals. Sharp corrections in metals futures prices and metals stocks will surprise many because this fall will happen without any major news taking place in the metals market. We won’t be surprised if gold goes towards years or even decade lows. This is purely a bearish cycle and we recommend short positions in metals.
Must read Kitco article of what we stated before Diwali:
This is what we mentioned on last Monday, 8, August: 11th August is our date for metals to enter into bear cycle. One prediction so far has started following our astro indicators and that is Thirty Year Bond; we predicted that from 12th July 2016 Thirty Year bond trading sharply lower and Bond started trading lower from that day so expect a longer term bear cycle in Bond.
Oil is holding $39.88 level which indicates short term rise and higher side $49.88, S&P is holding astro support level of 2117 and higher we may see 2195 which strong astro resistance level. Gold is struggling to move above $1348/1363 levels as predicted and lower side some support at $1295/1256/1212, so these are levels to watched very closely, below $1295 gold will enter worst bearish cycle.
Here are the trading strategy and ranges for Friday:
GOLD/SILVER/BASE METALS
On Thursday gold and silver lower, base metals traded mix, but metal mining stocks lost more value. Gold tested Monday lows once again $1210.50. Gold has important astro support level of $1211 and now major next support will be at……
This is what we mentioned Monday: Last week gold, and silver prices suffered a big setback but this set back was predicted. Our view was very negative for precious metals from 1st November. Last week on Friday copper tested $273 this was expected, and prices reversed sharply from USA sessions and closed around $250. This was big move in copper. Any rise in copper shall be taken as a selling opportunity.
DUST moved from $31.00 to $56.00; one can book some profit in DUST around $61.00.
On Monday, we recommend trading in and out in precious metals. One the higher side, the $1241 level will be very challenging for gold to cross so watch this level very closely.
This is small note from 3 October: We are not recommending any buying in silver and platinum as well as metal stocks. Medium and longer term traders must hold shorts in gold, platinum and silver. Gold trading below or closing below $1295 will push toward $1256/$1212, and silver from $18.15 to $16.75 level. DUST is great buy so don’t miss opportunity of buying on Tomorrow. Gold won’t go above $1348 level in any worst-case scenario.
Remember this what we stated on 22 September: Globally most of central banks are hold their rate to zero and gold is not showing magic which is shows that overall astro cycles pushing gold to remain around current level. Most of positive astro time have ended and small positive astro combinations is there which will going to end on 1 October and gold will enter in to 100% worst negative cycle from 1 November. At this stage trade in and out and keep building longer put options in gold and we are sure you will make future in 2017 by remaining bearish in gold.
Every analyst on this planet is recommending buying gold except me. Copper traded positive and stay long in copper, buying copper at $205 was good call. Sell more palladium and silver, stay sideline in platinum on Friday.
Gold won’t cross $1348 level in coming many years, and down side is unlimited. Wait for 2017 and you will see magic or power of hidden astro waves. Gold will struggle to move above $1348 and silver $20.28; these are the selling levels in both these precious metals but remain as a day trader for this week.
Here what we mentioned for last week Wednesday 31 August: Our view is not changing at all, so great buying opportunity in DUST at $29.00 level, add some more put options in gold, silver, platinum, palladium and base metals. You can buy Oct put of $ $19.75 in silver at $0.27, and gold $1340 at $13.00. We just bought DUST, and add more small put options of October. Mostly we recommend buying put in metals for Feb 2017. Currently gold is trading $1354, silver $20.18, Platinum $ 1103 and Palladium $700. As mentioned gold will have difficult time to hold above $1348 level (spot price) sow watch current value closely.
This is what we mentioned on 11 August: Higher side in gold can rise maximum $15 from current level of $1348 and lower side more than $300 by end of February 2017. Sell more NUGT around $178 and JNUG around $320; these levels were the previous highs last month. Add more buying in DUST.
Friday’s trading range: (December 2016 contract):
GOLD: $1221.90 to $1203.00
SILVER: $16.89 TO $16.39
COPPER: $251.80 TO $244.10
PALLADIUM: $732.90 TO $715.00
PLATINUM: $945.00 TO $921.50
INDEXES
On Thursday markets traded higher, we expected market to top around middle of trading sessions, it did test 2185.50 and held around there without having any major corrections. On Friday astro cycle is showing mix signal….
We are not changing what we stated Monday, 31 October: On Monday, we are expecting markets to remain mixed or on both sides; watch 2117 astro level in S&P, we still don’t see S&P remaining below 2117 for the next five days but a major astro support level is at 2088 level in the worst-case scenario. Place medium term bets accordingly and if Trump wins then withdraw all your bets from the market.
This is what we mentioned on the 29th of February: At this stage we are expecting that the Indian market will perform, so this is a great time for international investors to put money in the US market as Rupee is at a historic low and the market has already corrected 26% from higher levels. Brazil and China have also performed negatively and it looks like a big turnaround is on the way from this week. It is time to build some aggressive positions in BRZU at $9.30, YINN $10.65, and INDL $8.40. We recommended buying these ETF’s before at higher levels and we are still recommending holding on to old positions and adding more positions at current levels. Watch emerging market currencies because any turn around in Brazilian Real can push BRZU toward $39.00 from 9.30. S&P closed above 1938 and if it closes above 1938 for more than two days then expect it to move towards 1988 during this week or next week.
Two weeks ago we predicted that 1864 is a great buying level with the first target of 1938 and 1988. The first target got achieved very quickly and the second target will get achieved soon and after that our most important astro resistance level will be 2088, which has played a crucial role in keeping the bull away to move above 2088 for the last 16 months.
Friday’s trading ranges: (December 2016)
HONG KONG (cash) – 22478 to 22145
NIKKEI – 18275 TO 18059
NIFTY S&P (Spot) – 8169 TO 8061
Singapore Straits (Spot) – 2809 TO 2895
CAC – 4561 TO 4491
DAX – 10781 TO 10641
DEX EURO STOXX – 3065 – 3025
FTSE – 6812 TO 6755
FTSE/JSE (Cash) – 44591 to 43911
S&P e-mini – 2193.75 TO 2178.00
NASDAQ 100 e-mini – 4859.00 TO 4802.00
RUSSELL e-mini – 1315.00 TO 1301.00
DOW e-mini – 18915 TO 18791
VIX (Cash)- 13.61 to 12.75
TREASURY BOND
Thirty Year bond traded negative as it is following our medium and longer term trend. Keep adding sell positions on any rise. Friday mix to negative trend will continue. Get ready to sell aggressive positions if prices move toward 157/159 level.
We recommended booking profit in Thirty Year around 152, which was great call after selling at 175, 168, and 162 level.
Hold positions in TTT, TBT and TMV.
This is what we mentioned 10 September: Tuesday Thirty Year Bond gained value, and same indicating on Wednesday. Fed may leave rate decision sideline which can push bond toward 168/169. Rate hike may bring prices 162 level. Overall trend is negative so get ready to sell on any rise if FED refuse to hike.
In the last ten weeks’ bond prices came down from 176 to 165 as predicted and our longer-term view is very negative so keep building sell positions on any rise.
By the end of this year we may see 162-25 and 157. Stay long in TTT, TBT and TMV.
Friday’s trading range (December 2016 contract):
TREASURY BOND – 154-11 TO 152-25
SOFT COMMODITIES
On Thursday cotton prices moved further higher, and we are still recommending to hold positions in cotton as prices may test $75.00 level as predicted yesterday. Coffee will trade mix or both sides. Cocoa will remain mix, cover all shorts in cocoa as our target have achieved.
Buy sugar around $20.98 level, Sugar lost almost 8% value from recommended selling levels, cover all shorts in sugar around lower sides of today.
Avoid lumber and stay shorts in orange Juice….
This is what we mentioned on 4 November: Coffee traded sharply higher, it has been one of the best call because no one expected coffee to move this aggressively as good crop number and higher inventories. Coffee prices moved from $120 to $175 level, our maximum higher side target is $178 level so now one can book 100% profit.
Stay short in orange juice above $221 and start covering shorts in cocoa around $2500 and below because it fell 20% from our selling recommendations.
This is what we mentioned last week Monday, 8 August: Watch $143 support level for coffee, coffee must hold this level and on the higher side coffee can move towards the astro resistance level of $154. We are sure you must have booked profit in most of the softs (cotton at $75,00, coffee $154/178, sugar $19.98/$22.95, orange juice $190/210, and cocoa $3090), and now is the time to stay away.
This is what we mentioned on the 26th of May: We strongly recommend staying away from any short positions as sugar prices may move towards $17.65 level and that will be the level to take some short positions with stop-loss of 17.89 and if Sugar start trading above $17.89 for 26 hours than we may see $19.98 level.
Coffee prices will hold value on the Down side so one can buy some positions in coffee on Monday. $128 level will play the resistance level. On the other hand orange juice will move higher but we don’t see it moving above 165.00 level so close all positions if you have any in Juice.
Stay short in cocoa and buy coffee as prices will hold $122 level.
Remember what we mentioned on February 2016 - Coffee will struggle to close above $118 and $128. The maximum down side is $112 or $109. One can start accumulating coffee with target of $128. Cotton will struggle to close above $64.88 and on the down side one can buy around $57.50. Sugar selling is recommended at $16.65 buying around $12.78 to $12.50 is recommended.
Friday’s trading range: (December 2016 Contract)
COFFEE: $161.05 TO $157.35 Buying recommended at $112.50 and $118.00
SUGAR: $20.61 TO $20.07 First bought at $12.78 – Now book profit above $19.98
COTTON: 74.65 TO 71.88 Buy recommended at $65.00
GRAINS
On Thursday, most of grains traded positive, but soy oil lost some value, watch $33.00 level in soy oil as that should play a support level. Soy meal is our favorite trade so get some aggressive positions in soy meal on Friday and next week. Keep accumulating soy meal with higher side target of $327.00.
Corn and wheat will trade both side so trade in and out on Friday as mentioned below ranges. Soy bean will hold value but remain short term trader at this stage on Friday.
The down side in and Corn and soy will be limited or these grains will hold $438, Soy $955, Soy meal $303.00, soy oil will hold $34.00/33.00 and wheat $393.
This is what we mentioned 17 October: Monday grains prices moved sharply higher, Soy oil remained in frontline with testing almost 35.50 level which is most important as if soy oil start trading above 35.50 level then it can gain more 30% value in no time so watch soy oil trend closely. Short term traders can book some profit around $35.55 level in soy oil but don’t short soy oil.
Corn, wheat and soy also gained value, stay long in grains as still more three to five percent higher side level is indicating. Tuesday will remain positive days in grains. Corn achieved the predicted short term higher side of $353 and now corn can reach $369; one can book some profit around this level.
We already stated that in the worst case scenario soy may test $943/935, corn $325 and wheat $383 on the lower sides. On the higher side we see that Soy can move up to $1015, corn to $369, soy meal to $338 and wheat to $445.
This is what we mentioned on Thursday 15 September: Soy will have support at $935, wheat $398, and corn $327. Don’t take any aggressive positions in soy oil as it failed to move above $33.55 level which indicates that it may test 31.10 level.
Last week on the 9th of June, we stated - Buying recommendations in soy and meal from November 2015 have done very well. Corn will struggle to move above $451, Soy $1211, and Soy meal $435; these are the levels to sell.
This is what we mentioned on the 2nd of March 2016: The lower side in Soy, soy oil, corn and wheat is limited from current levels, not more than 2%; but on the higher side we see 5-7% positive moves. We don’t see corn going below $354, wheat $455, soy $845, Soy oil $29.70 and soy meal $260.
Friday’s trading range (December 2016 contracts):
CORN: $344.75 TO $338.25
WHEAT: $408.00 TO $398.00
SOY: $982.00 TO $962.75
SOY MEAL: $315.10 TO $309.30
SOY OIL: $34.05 TO $33.21
ENERGY
On Thursday oil traded both sides, ERX closed above $33 level which is still positive sign for energy stocks. If ERX closes below $33.00 then astro indicators will turn negative. At this stage, we recommend staying sideline in energy stocks without buying nay positions.
Oil traded negative, and closing below $44.55 will bring new bearish trend in oil, stay sideline in oil or just trade in and out. Heating oil and RB Gas will follow oil. Natural gas will hold value around current level. If oil closes below $44.55 then expect $42.28 level to $39.88. Stay sideline in oil at this stage. Still overall trend in oil is mix to negative. We recommended buying Natural Gas yesterday, we are still holding same predictions.
This is what we stated Monday, 31 Oct: Friday oil, heating oil and RB Gas traded negative as predicted. Energy stocks also went down but gas traded mixed. On Monday, oil will trade negative; stay sidelined or those who are holding shorts can continue holding and cover some around $47.50. If oil starts trading below this, then expect $46.75 to $44.88 level, cover all shorts at $44.55 level. Heating oil and RB Gas will trade negative or will follow oil. On the higher side, oil will struggle to remain above $49.88 level which is the most important astro resistance level.
Natural gas will trade on both sides without any clear directions so avoid trading but on the lower side one can buy GAS for Tuesday. Don’t touch energy stocks as they will keep struggling.
This is what we mentioned on for Friday 2 Sep: On Thursday oil, heating oil and RB Gas prices went down sharply lower and weakness will continue Friday. One can cover 50 to 70% shorts around $42.61 level in oil and 100% around $41.78, so one can cover positions in heating oil and RB Gas on Friday.
This is what we mentioned 1 August 2016: Selling oil at $98.00, covering all shorts at $44.55 and $27.71 were best call of last two years in oil. Early this year buying back at $27.71 with higher side target $48.88 level. Last month we recommended shorting oil around $48.88 to $49.88 levels with target of $39.88 which got achieved today.
On Monday oil, heating oil and RB Gas traded sharply lower. Energy stocks also lost big value, as predicted wait for ERX to test 25.00 level before you take any actions in energy stocks so avoid any buying in energy stocks.
Trading in and out is recommended in gas on daily basis, those who like to take sell should wait for another 10% move on higher side in gas, and keep buying on lower side if prices reaches to $2.63 level.
Lower side we see oil moving toward $39.88, watch this level closely, we don’t see oil breaking below $36.55 level in the pending months of 2016. Expect ERX to reach the $25.00 level and watch if it holds than start buy some positions.
Mentioned last month: Overall oil won’t be able to cross the $48.88 level and on the down side it may break the $40.00 level, but cover all shorts around the $39.88 levels.
We are not changing any of the predictions we mentioned on the 3rd of June: Same kind of positive, RB GAS and heating oil also moved higher. Natural gas traded mix. ERX have been hanging around $29.00 level and it has to close above $33.00 level to give bullish signal in energy stocks which we don’t see at this stage moment.
Oil has been failing to close above $48.88 level but same time it is not closing below 48.88 level as well. If oil closes above $48.88 for three days, then the next price level of $52.55 may get achieved. At this stage some selling is recommended around $48.88 level and on the down side the important level to buy is at $44,55. Oil prices have gained almost 70% from $27.71 which we called the perfect bottom for oil.
This is what we mentioned on the 2nd of February: Many are predicting oil remaining in the teen’s, but we do not see oil going below $27.71, so I hope those who are targeting $21 are doing their research well. Higher side it will struggle to move above $35.18 levels, and if it does than $44.55 is next target with $48.88 selling level.
Natural gas lost a lot of value from our recommended selling price of $2.44. today it closed around $2.03. One can start acquiring very small positions in natural gas around $1.72 and below.
A few past important predictions and levels for energy of the daily Flashnews are at the end of this letter.
Friday’s trading range (All January 2016 contracts):
OIL: $46.59 to $44.71
NATURAL GAS: $2.91 to $2.82 January
HEATING OIL: $1.4651 TO 1.4303
RB GAS: $1.3701 TO $1.3039
CURRENCIES
On Thursday USD went further higher, it closed around 101.00 level. Closing above 98.78 level in USD for three days is confirming that USD index can easily test 103.78 level. Rising USD is putting huge pressure on commodities, emerging market and emerging market currencies.
On Friday positivity trend in USD will continue, stay sideline or just trade in and out in most of currencies. As mentioned last year that most of frontline currencies would struggle in coming time and that’s what is happening, Pound hit historic lows, many of frontline currencies are falling on daily basis so stay sideline without any new buying for the few days.
If USD index closes above 103.78 level then expect dollar to move toward 112.88 which means that Euro and many other frontline currencies could lose 1500 to 2000 pips so watch 103.78 level closely.
We are predicting rise era of emerging market and emerging market currencies so great time to acquire positions in energy market currencies if you can handle short term volatility. Buy or load up Rupee, Real, Rand, Rubble and Peso for the longer term.
Cover all shorts in Japanese Yen.
We are not changing any predictions in currencies of what we mentioned on Monday, 31 October: We are still recommending to keep building positions in USD around 99.00 level. On the down side USD may hold 96.71 level so watch this level closely. Euro can move up to 1.1111 level in this week, so book profit if it goes there.
On late Monday, the Scorpio Moon will bring both sides volatility. On Wednesday, the FED will announce decisions and due to the Scorpio Moon traders will get confused. Trade light or just trade in and out in currencies but medium term traders can hold selling positions in USD.
We have been recommending shorting yen from 0.9875 level, and we still recommend to stay short in Yen but one can cover Japanese Yen around 0.9250 level and cover all shorts around 0.8855 level.
This is what we mentioned Monday on 29 August: We see Euro holding 1.1055 level and Pound 1.2925 level. We don’t see it falling below 0.9410 level and on the higher side it will have a difficult time to move above 1.0198 level. For USD index 97.00 to 97.50 level will play the role of a Wall for dollar which dollar may not be able to breach at this stage, or maybe even for the next six weeks, and on the down side USD may test 92.50 level.
On Monday, the 11th of April we stated: Last week USD traded negative, and lost value against most of currencies. There are still chances that USD may test 92.50 level so watch USD trend closely, and start taking positions at 92.50 level.
Emerging market currencies have done very well and it’s time to close positions if you are short or medium term traders. Rupee won’t fall much so don’t short Rupee but surely Rand, Real, Peso and Rubble will lose some value from middle of Monday.
Australian won’t hold above $0.7725, Canadian dollar 0.7900, Euro 1.1475, Franc 1.0555, and Yen 0.9288 level.
Friday’s trading range: (December futures)
DOLLAR INDEX – 101.32 to 100.59
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR – 0.7448 to 0.7345
CANADIAN DOLLAR – 0.7423 to 0.7379
BRITISH POUND – 1.2477 to 1.2353
EURO – 1.0699 to 1.0583
JAPANESE YEN – 0.9181 to 0.9061
SWISS FRANC – 1.0000 to 0.9911
RUPEE – 68.09 to 67.65 (Spot)
RAND – 14.59 to 14.25 (Spot)
Thanks & God Bless, Mahendra Sharma
17 November 2016, 3.05 PM, Santa Barbara