We just launched the "2017 Financial Predictions" book yesterday and book received great response. Many new visitors wonder how I come up with and write the predictions in the book, so this is first time we are providing 10 pages about what we mentioned for the US market in the 2016 Financial Predictions book from stock market sections. I am sure you will be very happy to know that there is a theory that can guide investors or traders well in advance about what is going to happen in the coming time. The below section has been taken from the 2016 Financial Predictions book page 25 to 35.
2016, and Financial Market
2016 looks far better as compared to 2015 because 2015 remained a very mixed year for the equity market. I was expecting a far better performance from the USA market, and expected it to move at least 7% higher from where it is currently trading (2070) at the time that I am writing this book. Many of the global markets also traded on both sides. The Chinese market moved sharply higher in the first quarter of the year, and then started losing value non-stop. There were growth concerns in China and the other emerging markets, so overall the emerging markets never supported the USA market with positive sentiments. The emerging market currencies also lost value during 2015, which adversely affected international investors who wanted to withdraw money from these emerging markets.
The European market followed the US market closely, and the Japanese market also remained quite stable in 2015. In 2015 the situation in Greece remained very uncertain but later during the year it was resolved as expected. A fall in the value of Euro and Quantitative Easing/Stimulus package from the ECB also helped the local economies and exporters.
2015 remained a very good year for specific stocks, and overall it was a year where certain names made amazing gains. The rewards were far better if you picked the right stocks during this year and the same kind of movement will continue in 2016 where certain names will perform exceedingly well. However, in 2016 indexes will also perform very well so those who missed the opportunity of making money in 2015 will be handsomely rewarded if what I see comes true.
During the first quarter of 2016, the North Node will join Jupiter which according to Vedic Astrology is not a good combination because the North Node diminishes the good power of Jupiter and promotes wrong doings. Jupiter will definitely come under the influence of the North Node, and it will leave its better qualities behind. In Vedic Astrology Jupiter is known as the Guru, Path Guider, Advisor, Teacher or Mentor; and it always comes in between good and evil, and supports what is right. However, all these positive qualities of Jupiter will not be displayed as long as Jupiter remains with the North Node.
In 2011 we predicted that the North Node would support speculation, gambling and unreasonable prices until 2017, and we still believe that the aggressive nature of the North Node is yet to reveal itself. This means that in 2016 we can expect to see greed starting to take control of everyone. In 2016 we will see people, companies, CEO’s, Fund Managers, and even Central Banks becoming greedier which will result in incredible amounts of gambling and speculation taking place. I do not recommend anyone to go short in the market or stocks. Yes, there will be certain times during these two years when sharp corrections will occur, but one has to remember that none of these corrections will last for more than two weeks. Therefore, one needs to remain a very active trader to take advantage of these correction spells.
Since 2011 we have witnessed the stock market moving higher, and have seen that year upon year the markets continue holding value at even higher levels. This clearly indicates that the market is in a longer term uptrend. During these years we have witnessed many quality stocks moving increasingly higher, but we have yet to experience a period where S&P moves 15% in a month. We are still to see stock prices rallying in that manner. Even though last year we saw a few frontline stocks moving 10-15% on earnings, these kinds of trends will be commonplace from here onwards.
As I mentioned in the first chapter, I want to keep this book very concise and to the point, so before I start the detailed prediction for each country/continent I would like to remind the reader that we are entering the most amazing time cycle of our lifetimes where the bull will roar, and the bear will be crushed. The prices movements in certain financial instruments will be so significant in the years 2016 and 2017 that it will remind us of the era of the Tech Bubble. Therefore, you should plan your trades and investments well, and we are sure that you will be handsomely rewarded.
USA MARKET IN 2016
We are all aware that in the train that represents the Global Markets, the USA market is the main engine and the rest of the worlds markets are the compartments that make up the rest of the train. Whatever direction the USA market adopts; the rest of the world follows. We were not able to see this pattern much in 2015 as the emerging markets and a few Asian and South American markets were not able to perform well due to a strong Dollar and incredible amounts of money flowing into the USA. Fund managers wanted to remain in USD and US asset classes rather than holding their assets in any other currency. I am sure you must be aware that ever since 2011 I have constantly been recommending holding the US Dollar and US asset classes including housing and other assets. In the year 2015, investors gained over 20% by just keeping money in USD against almost all other currencies.
2016 looks like a very positive year for US Dollar. This means that a significant amount of money will continue to remain in the USD, and investors/traders/etc. will be reluctant to withdraw their money from USD. We are all aware that a rate rise scenario is coming in the USA, and as widely expected, the rates may rise from December 2015. I must mention that as per our 2015 book the rate rise was supposed to take place after mid-2015, which never happened, but our prediction of a rate rise coming in 2015 (which surprised everyone in 2014) seems to be on the verge of coming true.
The second most interesting prediction that we made was the unemployment rate dropping to 5% or below 5% in 2015. Many experts are still not able to comprehend how we were able to predict exactly what the unemployment numbers were going to be in 2015. We see that the Unemployment rates will continue dropping in USA in 2016, the unemployment rate could drop towards 4.5%. In 2015 we have seen that the consumer confidence data was mixed and the GDP was showing indications of a better outlook in 2016.
The housing market improved drastically as predicted in 2015. The rental market remained very hot and housing demands remained very upbeat which resulted in growth in home building stocks. Stocks related to the housing market performed very well in 2015, and will keep performing well in 2016. In the second half of 2016 housing activity will increase drastically even though we will just have had a rate hike. The housing market demand will still remain strong so the rate rise will not be able to affect the housing market significantly. We strongly recommend investing in housing related stocks, which includes home builder and home improvement stocks.
In 2015 we saw a sharp correction in tech stocks as well as biotech stocks twice during the year, but biotech stocks remained considerably more under pressure in the last quarter of 2015. 2016 will be a mixed year for biotech stocks and movement will only take place in a select few stocks so it is important to choose the right stocks to buy.
Banking stocks performed very stable in 2015, and the year 2016 is promising a great future for banking and financial stocks. Jupiter joining the North Node may push banking stocks at least 20% higher from their current value, which is forcing us to advise you to put money in the frontline banking stocks.
In 2016 our favorite sectors will be Tech, Banking and Housing. Though many retailers’ stocks look like very attractive buys, our focus will only be on the above-mentioned sectors. We are also recommending not taking any sizable investments in natural resource stocks because the trend in commodities will still remain uncertain.
Here are some of our favorite stocks that should be in your portfolio from Mid-January 2016.
Tech Stocks: GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, AVGO, AAPL, CSCO, MXL, ABY, CRUS, CRAY, ADI, WDAY, FLIR, QCOM, IBM, OLED, TXN, CAVM, DATA, QRVO, AVGO.
Financial Stocks: LNC, WFC, GS, CA, BAC, PYPL, PNC, PRU, AIZ, V, MA.
Biotech Stocks: BIIB, HZNP, MDT, DXCM, REGN, BMY, GILD, ABMD.
Home Builder and Home Improvement Stocks: LEN, LGIH, TREE, TOL, SPG, QTS, CPT, FAST, VAL, SWK, BLD, HD, DOOR, BECN, BLDR, BSET, MHK.
Stocks from other Sectors: FDX, PH, STZ, UPS, ROK, BABA, DWRE.
You can also buy the ETF’s of these sectors if you want to spread your risk, but buying individual stocks will provide you with better returns. We also recommend buying the international markets, but at this stage rather than buying the market itself, the best investments can be made in the international markets ETF’s like YINN, LBJ, BRZU and INDL. These ETF’s will provide you with more than 100% returns during 2016.
In 2016 Russel 2000 may outperform the rest of the Indexes as mid cap stocks will start performing well and S&P and NASDAQ will move up together. In fact, on many occasions S&P will outperform NASDAQ and the DOW. In 2016 we do not see any major correction in the market. There will be some corrections in the market during the month of September. I do not know the reason why this will happen yet but the market may fall sharply for a very short period of time.
From the 1st of January to the 11th of January 2016 - The market will trade in an uncertain trading pattern due to the Scorpio Moon and New Moon. The moon will rise on the 10th of January, so we recommend investors to watch this cycle very carefully. Many traders who booked losses or closed trades during the end of the year might start reinstating positions, but we are not recommending any aggressive buying during this period. You can plan what you want to buy and what positions you want to accumulate for the medium and longer term during this cycle. This cycle may bring some uncertainty in the market because we are all aware what the Scorpio moon is capable of.
11th of January to 21st of January 2016
22nd of January to 3rd of March 2016
4th of March to 3rd of April 2016
4th of April to 9th of May 2016
10th of May to 20th of June 2016
21st of June to 16th of July 2016
17th of July to 27th of August 2016
28th of August to 22nd of September 2016
23rd of September to 6th of October 2016
7th of October to 17th of November 2016
18th of November to 31st of December 2016